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Makhachkala vs Orenburg 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2025/2026 (Round 21)

Fair result
MakhachkalaMakhachkala

1–0

OrenburgOrenburg
1.4Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Makhachkala would usually take 1.8 points and Orenburg 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Makhachkala.

Makhachkala +1.2 pts vs chancesOrenburg −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Makhachkala vs Orenburg stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Makhachkala had more than twice the shots on target

Makhachkala

Orenburg

4

Shots on target

2

3

Big chances

1

6

Corners

6

2

Yellow cards

2

46%

Possession

54%

The match between Makhachkala and Orenburg ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Makhachkala win with 49% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Akhmat Grozny – Orenburg prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Makhachkala vs Orenburg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Makhachkala to win

Correct
Our model 49%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 3,477 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,301 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 82%

Our track record

In 3,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 45%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Makhachkala Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Makhachkala 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Orenburg Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Orenburg 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 76%

Our track record

In 2,570 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Makhachkala vs Orenburg 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Makhachkala vs Orenburg. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - Russia
MakhachkalaMakhachkala1
OrenburgOrenburg0

Winner

1X 76%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

149%
X27%
224%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT30%70%56%44%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT67%33%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Makhachkala24%76%57%43%
Orenburg42%58%76%24%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Makhachkala82%18%94%6%
Orenburg93%7%98%2%

1st Half

133%
X45%
222%

1st Score

152%
X9%
238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

28%

X-X

18%

X-1

17%

2-2

13%

X-2

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

13.2%

1-1

12.3%

2-1

9.2%

2-0

9.1%

0-0

9.1%

0-1

8.1%

1-2

5.8%

3-0

4.6%

2-2

4.5%

3-1

4.4%

0-2

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Akhmat Grozny – Orenburg prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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