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Fakel vs Makhachkala 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Fair result
FakelFakel

1–2

MakhachkalaMakhachkala
0.8Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Fakel would usually take 1.0 points and Makhachkala 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Fakel.

Fakel −1.0 pts vs chancesMakhachkala +1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Fakel vs Makhachkala stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Fakel

Makhachkala

3

Shots on target

4

1

Big chances

2

8

Corners

2

0

Yellow cards

1

57%

Possession

43%

The match between Fakel and Makhachkala ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Fakel win at 49% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fakel – Rodina Moskva prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Fakel vs Makhachkala — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fakel to win

Wrong
Our model 49%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 3,484 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,692 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 5,303 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 80%Bookmakers 86%

Our track record

In 3,655 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 44%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 6,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Fakel Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fakel 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Makhachkala Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Makhachkala 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 79%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 2,580 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Fakel vs Makhachkala 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Fakel vs Makhachkala. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - Russia
FakelFakel1
MakhachkalaMakhachkala2

Winner

1X 77%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

149%
X27%
223%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT34%66%60%40%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT70%30%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Fakel26%74%60%40%
Makhachkala45%55%79%21%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Fakel83%17%94%6%
Makhachkala94%6%99%1%

1st Half

139%
X44%
217%

1st Score

159%
X11%
231%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

33%

X-1

19%

X-X

18%

2-2

10%

X-2

7%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

14.4%

1-1

12.5%

0-0

10.6%

2-0

9.9%

2-1

8.8%

0-1

8.7%

1-2

5.3%

3-0

4.5%

3-1

4.0%

0-2

3.9%

2-2

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fakel – Rodina Moskva prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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