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Rubin Kazan vs Orenburg 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
Rubin KazanRubin Kazan

1–1

OrenburgOrenburg
0.8Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Rubin Kazan would usually take 1.1 points and Orenburg 1.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Rubin Kazan.

Rubin Kazan −0.1 pts vs chancesOrenburg −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Rubin Kazan vs Orenburg stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Orenburg had more than twice the shots on target

Rubin Kazan

Orenburg

1

Shots on target

3

1

Big chances

2

7

Corners

1

2

Yellow cards

1

61%

Possession

39%

The match between Rubin Kazan and Orenburg ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Rubin Kazan win at 49% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Spartak Moskva – Rubin Kazan prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Rubin Kazan vs Orenburg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rubin Kazan to win

Wrong
Our model 49%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 47%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Rubin Kazan Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rubin Kazan 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Orenburg Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Orenburg 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 76%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Rubin Kazan vs Orenburg 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Rubin Kazan vs Orenburg. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - Russia
Rubin KazanRubin Kazan1
OrenburgOrenburg1

Winner

1X 76%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

149%
X27%
224%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%58%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT69%31%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Rubin Kazan25%75%59%41%
Orenburg44%56%78%22%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Rubin Kazan83%17%94%6%
Orenburg94%6%98%2%

1st Half

132%
X47%
221%

1st Score

153%
X10%
237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-1

18%

X-X

18%

2-2

13%

X-2

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

13.9%

1-1

12.4%

0-0

10.0%

2-0

9.6%

2-1

8.8%

0-1

8.5%

1-2

5.7%

3-0

4.4%

3-1

4.1%

2-2

4.1%

0-2

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Spartak Moskva – Rubin Kazan prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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