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Spartak Moskva vs Rostov 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)

Fair result
Spartak MoskvaSpartak Moskva

3–0

RostovRostov
2.4Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Spartak Moskva would usually take 2.1 points and Rostov 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Spartak Moskva.

Spartak Moskva +0.9 pts vs chancesRostov −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Spartak Moskva vs Rostov stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Spartak Moskva

Rostov

9

Shots on target

7

3

Big chances

0

3

Corners

6

2

Yellow cards

4

0

Red cards

1

62%

Possession

38%

The match between Spartak Moskva and Rostov ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Spartak Moskva win with 66% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Spartak Moskva – Rubin Kazan prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Spartak Moskva vs Rostov — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Spartak Moskva to win

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.5% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Spartak Moskva ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 42%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Spartak Moskva Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Spartak Moskva 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Rostov Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rostov 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 84%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Spartak Moskva vs Rostov 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Spartak Moskva vs Rostov. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - Russia
Spartak MoskvaSpartak Moskva3
RostovRostov0

Winner

1 66%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

166%
X21%
213%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%49%51%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT61%39%82%18%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Spartak Moskva15%85%43%57%
Rostov54%46%84%16%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Spartak Moskva70%30%87%13%
Rostov96%4%99%1%

1st Half

142%
X42%
216%

1st Score

165%
X7%
228%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

39%

X-1

20%

X-X

13%

2-2

8%

X-2

6%

1-X

4%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

13.7%

2-0

12.6%

2-1

9.9%

1-1

9.6%

3-0

8.0%

0-0

7.1%

3-1

5.9%

0-1

4.6%

2-2

3.7%

1-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Spartak Moskva – Rubin Kazan prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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