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Lokomotiv Moskva vs Krasnodar

Lokomotiv Moskva vs Krasnodar 3-3 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)

Fair result

Lokomotiv Moskva

3–3

Krasnodar

1.3Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Lokomotiv Moskva would usually take 1.0 points and Krasnodar 1.8; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Krasnodar.

Lokomotiv Moskva 0.0 pts vs chancesKrasnodar −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lokomotiv Moskva vs Krasnodar stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Krasnodar had clearly more shots on target

Lokomotiv Moskva

Krasnodar

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

40%

Possession

60%

The match between Lokomotiv Moskva and Krasnodar ended 3-3. Our AI model predicted an Krasnodar win at 45% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rodina Moskva – Krasnodar prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Lokomotiv Moskva vs Krasnodar — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Krasnodar to win

Wrong

Our model 45%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 536 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 60%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.2% than to our 60–65%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 80%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 1,704 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.6% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 48%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 4,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Lokomotiv Moskva Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lokomotiv Moskva 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 77%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 831 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Krasnodar Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Krasnodar 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 63%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 2,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lokomotiv Moskva vs Krasnodar 3-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lokomotiv Moskva vs Krasnodar. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - Russia

Lokomotiv Moskva3

Krasnodar3

Winner

X2 75%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

0-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

· FT

Premier League - Russia

Lokomotiv Moskva3

Krasnodar3

Winner

X2 75%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

0-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

125%

X30%

245%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	36%	64%	60%	40%	70%	30%	90%	10%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	36%	64%	60%	40%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	70%	30%	90%	10%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	44%	56%	77%	23%	93%	7%	98%	2%
	29%	71%	63%	37%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	44%	56%	77%	23%
	29%	71%	63%	37%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	93%	7%	98%	2%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

124%

X47%

229%

1st Score

141%

X13%

247%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

23%

X-X

19%

X-2

17%

1-1

16%

X-1

10%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

0-1

13.9%

0-0

12.6%

1-1

12.3%

1-0

9.1%

0-2

8.5%

1-2

8.4%

2-1

5.8%

2-2

4.0%

0-3

4.0%

2-0

4.0%

1-3

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Lokomotiv Moskva vs Krasnodar — Recent Form

Lokomotiv Moskva have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 13th in the table. Krasnodar have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva

Krasnodar

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Lokomotiv Moskva

2/5

Krasnodar

0/5

Both Teams to Score

Lokomotiv Moskva

2/5

Krasnodar

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Lokomotiv Moskva

3/5

Krasnodar

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Lokomotiv Moskva

3/5

Krasnodar

3/5

First Half Result

Lokomotiv Moskva

2/5

Krasnodar

2/5

Correct Score

Lokomotiv Moskva

0/5

Krasnodar

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rodina Moskva – Krasnodar prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).