Brick wall
6/10Deportivo Maldonado kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 30%).
Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 11)
Brick wall
Deportivo Maldonado kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 30%).
6/10Clean sheets · Deportivo Maldonado
Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado score prediction
Primera Division
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Nacional expected to create clearly more
2.5 goals in total, a little over the Primera Division average of 2.4.
goals expected
Nacional1.5Deportivo Maldonado1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →The match Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado will be played on Monday, October 19 as part of the 2026 season. This fixture will be played in the Round 11 of the Primera Division, played in Uruguay. On this page, you’ll find our detailed football prediction for Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado, including full-time result (1X2) probabilities, draw chances, and additional betting insights. Our predictions are generated using data-driven models that analyze team form, recent performances, and historical trends to deliver reliable match forecasts.
Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Nacional–
Deportivo Maldonado–Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Nacional–Deportivo Maldonado–Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Full Time
142%
X29%
229%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 33% | 67% | 59% | 41% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 70% | 30% | 90% | 10% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | 71% | 64% | 36% |
| 38% | 62% | 74% | 26% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
129%
X49%
222%
1st Score
152%
X10%
238%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
X-X
20%
X-1
17%
2-2
15%
X-2
12%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.4%
1-0
12.8%
0-0
10.3%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
9.1%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
4.9%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
3.5%
3-0
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado: the stats that stand out
Primera Division
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Deportivo Maldonado: brick wall · Nacional: fast starters and always on the scoresheet
6/10Fast starters
7/10Nacional scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 45%).
Always on the scoresheet
1/10Nacional failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 30%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado: attack vs defence
Primera Division
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Primera Division teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Nacional: weak attack, good defence (0.97 xG, 1.08 xGA a game)
- Deportivo Maldonado: weak attack, good defence (1.12 xG, 1.13 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado form and luck check
Primera Division
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Primera Division gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Nacional7 of 10 games+2.8
- Deportivo Maldonado6 of 10 games−0.2
Last 5 matches
NacionalW
W
W
D
D
Deportivo MaldonadoD
W
W
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Nacional 2nd of 16 · Deportivo Maldonado 6th of 16
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 16 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Primera Division
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Primera Division gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Deportivo Maldonado games less often than the Primera Division average (50%), in Nacional games about as often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 44%
Nacional4 of 10
Deportivo Maldonado2 of 10
BTTSleague 50%
Nacional5 of 10
Deportivo Maldonado2 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 296 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado corners, cards and goal times
Primera Division
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameDeportivo Maldonado score late
Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
7.3
Corners won · league 4.5
3.4
3.6
Corners conceded · league 4.5
4.4
2.1
Cards · league 3.0
2.5
3.7
Opponents' cards · league 3.0
2.6
33%
Goals before half-time · league 46%
36%
33%
Goals after 75' · league 26%
36%
20%
Conceded before half-time · league 46%
67%
40%
Conceded after 75' · league 26%
17%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Nacional3/5
Deportivo Maldonado2/5
Both Teams to Score
Nacional1/5
Deportivo Maldonado3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Nacional3/5
Deportivo Maldonado4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Nacional3/5
Deportivo Maldonado5/5
First Half Result
Nacional2/5
Deportivo Maldonado3/5
Correct Score
Nacional1/5
Deportivo Maldonado1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction