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Cerro Largo vs Juventud

Cerro Largo vs Juventud 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 1)

Fair result

Cerro Largo

1–1

Juventud

1.2Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Cerro Largo would usually take 1.2 points and Juventud 1.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Juventud.

Cerro Largo −0.2 pts vs chancesJuventud −0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cerro Largo vs Juventud stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Cerro Largo

Juventud

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

44%

Possession

56%

The match between Cerro Largo and Juventud ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Cerro Largo win at 38% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Cerro Largo vs Juventud — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cerro Largo to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Juventud to win.

Our model 38%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 80%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Cerro Largo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cerro Largo 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 67%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Juventud Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Juventud 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cerro Largo vs Juventud 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cerro Largo vs Juventud. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

Cerro Largo1

Juventud1

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

Cerro Largo1

Juventud1

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

138%

X29%

233%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	33%	67%	58%	42%	70%	30%	90%	10%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	33%	67%	58%	42%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	70%	30%	90%	10%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	31%	69%	67%	33%	88%	12%	97%	3%
	35%	65%	71%	29%	91%	9%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	31%	69%	67%	33%
	35%	65%	71%	29%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	88%	12%	97%	3%
	91%	9%	98%	2%

1st Half

127%

X48%

224%

1st Score

145%

X10%

244%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

21%

1-1

20%

2-2

17%

X-1

14%

X-2

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

13.4%

1-0

11.7%

0-0

10.4%

0-1

10.4%

2-1

8.6%

1-2

7.8%

2-0

6.8%

0-2

5.7%

2-2

4.5%

3-1

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score