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  4. Central Español vs Atlético Progreso

Central Español vs Progreso 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 1)

Fair result
Central EspañolCentral Español

1–0

ProgresoProgreso
1.7Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Central Español would usually take 1.8 points and Progreso 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Central Español.

Central Español +1.2 pts vs chancesProgreso −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Central Español vs Progreso stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Central Español had more than twice the shots on target

Central Español

Progreso

7

Shots on target

3

0

Big chances

0

6

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

0

0

Red cards

1

52%

Possession

48%

The match between Central Español and Progreso ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Central Español win with 35% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Danubio – Central Español prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Central Español vs Progreso — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Central Español to win

Correct
Our model 35%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 82%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Central Español Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Central Español 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 1,588 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Progreso Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Progreso 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Central Español vs Progreso 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Central Español vs Progreso. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Primera Division - Uruguay
Central EspañolCentral Español1
ProgresoProgreso0

Winner

12 69%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 72%

Full Time

135%
X31%
234%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT37%63%64%36%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT72%28%91%9%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Central Español35%65%71%29%
Progreso36%64%72%28%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Central Español91%9%98%2%
Progreso91%9%97%3%

1st Half

125%
X50%
225%

1st Score

145%
X12%
243%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

22%

1-1

20%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-2

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.9%

1-0

12.6%

0-1

12.2%

0-0

12.1%

2-1

7.4%

1-2

6.9%

2-0

6.6%

0-2

6.2%

2-2

4.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Danubio – Central Español prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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