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Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing

Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 1)

Fair result

Deportivo Maldonado

2–2

Racing

0.5Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Deportivo Maldonado would usually take 0.9 points and Racing 1.8; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Deportivo Maldonado.

Deportivo Maldonado +0.1 pts vs chancesRacing −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Racing had more than twice the shots on target

Deportivo Maldonado

Racing

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Deportivo Maldonado and Racing ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Racing win at 36% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Nacional – Deportivo Maldonado prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Racing to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Deportivo Maldonado to win.

Our model 36%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 1,527 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 3,111 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 81%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 1,740 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 49%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 4,241 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Deportivo Maldonado Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Maldonado 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 71%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 1,588 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Racing Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Racing 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 69%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,276 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

Deportivo Maldonado2

Racing2

Winner

12 70%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 71%

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

Deportivo Maldonado2

Racing2

Winner

12 70%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 71%

Full Time

134%

X30%

236%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	34%	66%	61%	39%	71%	29%	91%	9%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	34%	66%	61%	39%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	71%	29%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	35%	65%	71%	29%	91%	9%	98%	2%
	33%	67%	69%	31%	89%	11%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	35%	65%	71%	29%
	33%	67%	69%	31%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	91%	9%	98%	2%
	89%	11%	97%	3%

1st Half

126%

X49%

224%

1st Score

143%

X11%

246%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

21%

1-1

19%

2-2

18%

X-1

14%

X-2

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

13.9%

0-1

11.8%

1-0

11.4%

0-0

11.2%

1-2

7.7%

2-1

7.6%

0-2

6.4%

2-0

6.2%

2-2

4.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Nacional – Deportivo Maldonado prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).