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Danubio vs Peñarol 0-4 Score & Prediction Review
Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 5)
Danubio0–4
PeñarolOn these chances Danubio would usually take 1.0 points and Peñarol 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Peñarol.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Danubio vs Peñarol stats: how the match was played
Primera Division
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Peñarol had clearly more shots on target
Danubio
Peñarol
6
Shots on target
10
0
Big chances
1
7
Corners
3
0
Yellow cards
0
49%
Possession
51%
Danubio vs Peñarol — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Primera Division
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Peñarol to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectOur track record
In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Our model’s pick
Danubio 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 395 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Our model’s pick
Peñarol 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Danubio vs Peñarol 0-4 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Danubio vs Peñarol. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Danubio0
Peñarol4Winner
X2 79%
BTTS*
No 57%
Correct Score
0-1 15%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 72%
Danubio0Peñarol4Winner
X2 79%
BTTS*
No 57%
Correct Score
0-1 15%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 72%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 36% | 64% | 63% | 37% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 72% | 28% | 91% | 9% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47% | 53% | 81% | 19% |
| 27% | 73% | 61% | 39% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 4% | 99% | 1% |
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
27%
X-X
21%
X-2
17%
1-1
12%
X-1
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
1%
Correct Score
0-1
14.9%
1-1
13.3%
0-0
12.3%
0-2
10.2%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
5.0%
0-3
4.6%
2-2
3.9%
2-0
3.8%
1-3
3.8%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score