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  4. Cerro vs Racing

Cerro vs Racing 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 5)

Smash-and-grab

Cerro won with less than half the chances

CerroCerro

1–0

RacingRacing
0.9Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Cerro would usually take 0.8 points and Racing 2.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Racing.

Cerro +2.2 pts vs chancesRacing −2.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cerro vs Racing stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Racing had clearly more shots on target

Cerro

Racing

4

Shots on target

7

0

Big chances

0

4

Corners

9

2

Yellow cards

2

1

Red cards

0

35%

Possession

66%

The match between Cerro and Racing ended 1-0. Our AI model predicted an Racing win at 55% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Defensor Sporting – Racing prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Cerro vs Racing — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Racing to win

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 69%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 86%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 399 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 87.7% of the time (bookmakers said 86.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Cerro Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cerro 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 89%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 124 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 86.3% of the time (bookmakers said 84.9%).

Racing Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Racing 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cerro vs Racing 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cerro vs Racing. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Primera Division - Uruguay
CerroCerro1
RacingRacing0

Winner

2 55%

BTTS*

No 63%

Correct Score

0-1 19%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 69%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 76%

Full Time

115%
X30%
255%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT41%59%69%31%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT76%24%93%7%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Cerro56%44%89%11%
Racing25%75%61%39%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Cerro99%1%100%0%
Racing84%16%95%5%

1st Half

114%
X52%
235%

1st Score

128%
X14%
257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

28%

X-X

24%

X-2

21%

1-1

8%

X-1

7%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-1

18.6%

0-0

14.4%

1-1

12.8%

0-2

12.4%

1-0

8.1%

1-2

8.0%

0-3

5.3%

1-3

4.0%

2-1

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Defensor Sporting – Racing prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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