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Boston River vs Atlético Progreso

Boston River vs Progreso 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 7)

Boston River vs Progreso stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Progreso had more than twice the shots on target

Boston River

Progreso

Shots on target

Corners

Yellow cards

The match between Boston River and Progreso ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Boston River win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Boston River vs Progreso — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Boston River to win

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 80%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 45%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Boston River Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Boston River 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Progreso Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Progreso 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 77%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Boston River vs Progreso 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Boston River vs Progreso. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

Boston River1

Progreso2

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

Boston River1

Progreso2

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

146%

X29%

225%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	34%	66%	60%	40%	70%	30%	90%	10%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	34%	66%	60%	40%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	70%	30%	90%	10%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	73%	62%	38%	86%	14%	95%	5%
	42%	58%	77%	23%	93%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	73%	62%	38%
	42%	58%	77%	23%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	86%	14%	95%	5%
	93%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

135%

X45%

219%

1st Score

154%

X11%

236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-X

19%

X-1

17%

2-2

13%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

13.8%

1-1

13.4%

0-0

10.8%

2-0

9.1%

2-1

9.1%

0-1

8.9%

1-2

5.9%

2-2

4.4%

0-2

4.1%

3-0

3.9%

3-1

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Boston River vs Progreso — Recent Form

Progreso have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Boston River have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Progreso

Boston River

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Boston River

2/5

Progreso

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Boston River

0/5

Progreso

1/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Boston River

2/5

Progreso

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Boston River

4/5

Progreso

4/5

First Half Result

Boston River

2/5

Progreso

1/5

Correct Score

Boston River

0/5

Progreso

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction