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Nacional vs Defensor Sporting

Nacional vs Defensor Sporting 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 7)

Nacional vs Defensor Sporting stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Nacional had more than twice the shots on target

Nacional

Defensor Sporting

Shots on target

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

The match between Nacional and Defensor Sporting ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Nacional win with 52% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Nacional – Deportivo Maldonado prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

Nacional vs Defensor Sporting — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nacional to win

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 63%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 83%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Nacional Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nacional 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Nacional 2+ goals.

Our model 59%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,027 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.

Defensor Sporting Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Defensor Sporting 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 83%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Nacional vs Defensor Sporting 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Nacional vs Defensor Sporting. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

Nacional3

Defensor Sporting2

Winner

1 52%

BTTS*

No 58%

Correct Score

1-0 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 72%

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

Nacional3

Defensor Sporting2

Winner

1 52%

BTTS*

No 58%

Correct Score

1-0 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 72%

Full Time

152%

X28%

220%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	36%	64%	63%	37%	72%	28%	91%	9%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	36%	64%	63%	37%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	72%	28%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	59%	41%	84%	16%	95%	5%
	48%	52%	83%	17%	96%	4%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	59%	41%
	48%	52%	83%	17%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	84%	16%	95%	5%
	96%	4%	99%	1%

1st Half

136%

X48%

216%

1st Score

158%

X12%

230%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

19%

X-X

19%

X-2

2-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

16.1%

1-1

12.8%

0-0

11.7%

2-0

10.9%

2-1

9.5%

0-1

8.4%

3-0

4.8%

1-2

4.7%

3-1

4.0%

2-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Nacional vs Defensor Sporting — Recent Form

Nacional have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table. Defensor Sporting have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 12th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Nacional

Defensor Sporting

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Nacional

4/5

Defensor Sporting

4/5

Both Teams to Score

Nacional

2/5

Defensor Sporting

1/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Nacional

4/5

Defensor Sporting

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Nacional

4/5

Defensor Sporting

2/5

First Half Result

Nacional

1/5

Defensor Sporting

0/5

Correct Score

Nacional

2/5

Defensor Sporting

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Nacional – Deportivo Maldonado prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).