2. Leagues
  3. Pro League
  4. Al Ahli vs Al Riyadh

Al Ahli vs Al Riyadh 5-0 Score & Prediction Review

Pro League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Fair result
Al AhliAl Ahli

5–0

Al RiyadhAl Riyadh
3.4Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Al Ahli would usually take 2.7 points and Al Riyadh 0.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Al Ahli.

Al Ahli +0.4 pts vs chancesAl Riyadh −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Al Ahli vs Al Riyadh stats: how the match was played

Pro League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Al Ahli had more than twice the shots on target

Al Ahli

Al Riyadh

8

Shots on target

1

6

Big chances

0

4

Corners

3

1

Yellow cards

3

57%

Possession

43%

The match between Al Ahli and Al Riyadh ended 5-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Al Ahli win with 76% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Al Feiha – Al Ahli prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

Al Ahli vs Al Riyadh — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Pro League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Al Ahli to win

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 146 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 84.2% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Al Ahli ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Al Ahli Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Al Ahli 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 1,588 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Al Riyadh Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Al Riyadh 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 86%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Al Ahli vs Al Riyadh 5-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Al Ahli vs Al Riyadh. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Pro League - Saudi Arabia
Al AhliAl Ahli5
Al RiyadhAl Riyadh0

Winner

1 76%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

2-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 65%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 51%

Full Time

176%
X15%
29%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT16%84%35%65%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT49%51%70%30%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Al Ahli8%92%28%72%
Al Riyadh59%41%86%14%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Al Ahli54%46%75%25%
Al Riyadh97%3%100%0%

1st Half

152%
X35%
213%

1st Score

173%
X4%
223%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

49%

X-1

20%

X-X

9%

2-1

5%

2-2

5%

X-2

4%

2-X

4%

1-X

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

2-0

11.4%

2-1

10.7%

3-0

9.7%

1-0

9.2%

3-1

7.3%

1-1

7.0%

0-0

4.0%

2-2

3.6%

3-2

3.4%

1-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Al Feiha – Al Ahli prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores