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Bahia vs Chapecoense

Bahia vs Chapecoense 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 4)

Fair result

Bahia

2–0

Chapecoense

2.2Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Bahia would usually take 2.1 points and Chapecoense 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Bahia.

Bahia +0.9 pts vs chancesChapecoense −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Bahia vs Chapecoense stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Bahia had more than twice the shots on target

Bahia

Chapecoense

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

66%

Possession

34%

The match between Bahia and Chapecoense ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Bahia win with 66% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bahia – Flamengo prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Bahia vs Chapecoense — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bahia to win

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.5% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 72%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bahia ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 47%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Bahia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bahia 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Chapecoense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chapecoense 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 86%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Bahia vs Chapecoense 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Bahia vs Chapecoense. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Bahia2

Chapecoense0

Winner

1 66%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Bahia2

Chapecoense0

Winner

1 66%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

166%

X21%

212%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	27%	73%	51%	49%	62%	38%	82%	18%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	27%	73%	51%	49%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	62%	38%	82%	18%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	15%	85%	43%	57%	70%	30%	87%	13%
	55%	45%	86%	14%	97%	3%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	15%	85%	43%	57%
	55%	45%	86%	14%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	70%	30%	87%	13%
	97%	3%	99%	1%

1st Half

147%

X39%

214%

1st Score

169%

X8%

223%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

42%

X-1

21%

X-X

14%

2-2

1-X

X-2

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

14.1%

2-0

12.5%

2-1

10.3%

1-1

9.8%

0-0

7.6%

3-0

7.6%

3-1

6.0%

0-1

5.0%

2-2

3.5%

1-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bahia – Flamengo prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).