Botafogo vs Vitória 0-0 Score & Prediction Review
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 4)
Botafogo drew despite more chances
Botafogo0–0
VitóriaOn these chances Botafogo would usually take 2.2 points and Vitória 0.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Botafogo.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Botafogo vs Vitória stats: how the match was played
Serie A
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Botafogo had more than twice the shots on target
Botafogo
Vitória
6
Shots on target
1
4
Big chances
1
9
Corners
3
1
Yellow cards
1
55%
Possession
45%
Botafogo vs Vitória — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Botafogo to win
WrongOur track record
In 1,792 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,114 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,835 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,548 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Our model’s pick
Botafogo ahead at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,645 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Botafogo 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,799 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Our model’s pick
Vitória 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.9% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Botafogo vs Vitória 0-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Botafogo vs Vitória. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Botafogo0
Vitória0Winner
1 60%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Botafogo0Vitória0Winner
1 60%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 52% | 48% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 64% | 36% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17% | 83% | 47% | 53% |
| 50% | 50% | 82% | 18% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 25% | 90% | 10% |
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
37%
X-1
22%
X-X
14%
2-2
7%
X-2
6%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
13.4%
2-0
11.4%
1-1
11.0%
2-1
10.4%
0-0
8.0%
3-0
6.4%
0-1
5.6%
3-1
5.3%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
4.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score