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Vitória vs Vasco da Gama 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 19)

Fair result
VitóriaVitória

1–0

Vasco da GamaVasco da Gama
1.3Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Vitória would usually take 1.4 points and Vasco da Gama 1.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Vitória.

Vitória +1.7 pts vs chancesVasco da Gama −1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Vitória vs Vasco da Gama stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Vitória had clearly more shots on target

Vitória

Vasco da Gama

5

Shots on target

3

1

Big chances

2

3

Corners

2

0

Yellow cards

0

49%

Possession

51%

The match between Vitória and Vasco da Gama ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Vitória win with 48% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Corinthians – Vitória prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

Vitória vs Vasco da Gama — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vitória to win

Correct
Our model 48%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 76%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 46%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Vitória Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vitória 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Vasco da Gama Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vasco da Gama 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Vitória vs Vasco da Gama 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Vitória vs Vasco da Gama. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
VitóriaVitória1
Vasco da GamaVasco da Gama0

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

148%
X26%
226%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%52%48%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Vitória23%77%56%44%
Vasco da Gama39%61%74%26%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Vitória82%18%94%6%
Vasco da Gama91%9%98%2%

1st Half

131%
X46%
223%

1st Score

153%
X8%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

X-1

19%

X-X

17%

2-2

13%

X-2

9%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

2-1

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.6%

1-0

11.8%

2-1

10.1%

2-0

8.7%

0-0

7.7%

0-1

7.5%

1-2

6.6%

2-2

5.0%

3-1

4.5%

3-0

4.5%

0-2

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Corinthians – Vitória prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

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