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Botafogo vs Santos 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 19)

Fair result
BotafogoBotafogo

2–1

SantosSantos
1.9Chances (xG)2.4

On these chances Botafogo would usually take 1.1 points and Santos 1.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Botafogo.

Botafogo +1.9 pts vs chancesSantos −1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Botafogo vs Santos stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Santos had clearly more shots on target

Botafogo

Santos

6

Shots on target

9

4

Big chances

4

5

Corners

6

4

Yellow cards

2

48%

Possession

53%

The match between Botafogo and Santos ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Botafogo win with 49% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Santos prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Botafogo vs Santos — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Botafogo to win

Correct
Our model 49%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Botafogo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Botafogo 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Santos Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Santos 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Botafogo vs Santos 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Botafogo vs Santos. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
BotafogoBotafogo2
SantosSantos1

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

149%
X26%
225%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT28%72%53%47%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Botafogo23%77%56%44%
Santos40%60%74%26%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Botafogo81%19%93%7%
Santos92%8%98%2%

1st Half

137%
X43%
219%

1st Score

158%
X8%
234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

X-1

19%

X-X

15%

2-2

11%

X-2

9%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.4%

1-0

12.0%

2-1

10.0%

2-0

8.8%

0-0

8.0%

0-1

7.7%

1-2

6.4%

2-2

5.0%

3-1

4.6%

3-0

4.5%

0-2

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Santos prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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