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São Paulo vs Santos

São Paulo vs Santos 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 21)

Smash-and-grab

Santos won with less than half the chances

São Paulo

1–2

Santos

2.7Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances São Paulo would usually take 2.4 points and Santos 0.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: São Paulo.

São Paulo −2.4 pts vs chancesSantos +2.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

São Paulo vs Santos stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

São Paulo had more than twice the shots on target

São Paulo

Santos

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

58%

Possession

42%

The match between São Paulo and Santos ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a São Paulo win at 52% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Santos prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

São Paulo vs Santos — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

São Paulo to win

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,492 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,138 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,854 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 73%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 4,583 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 46%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,241 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

São Paulo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

São Paulo 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,822 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Santos Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Santos 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 75%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,376 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

São Paulo vs Santos 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for São Paulo vs Santos. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

São Paulo1

Santos2

Winner

1 52%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

São Paulo1

Santos2

Winner

1 52%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

152%

X25%

223%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	25%	75%	49%	51%	63%	37%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	25%	75%	49%	51%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	63%	37%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	20%	80%	52%	48%	78%	22%	92%	8%
	40%	60%	75%	25%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	20%	80%	52%	48%
	40%	60%	75%	25%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	78%	22%	92%	8%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

137%

X46%

217%

1st Score

163%

X7%

231%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

X-1

21%

X-X

16%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.0%

1-0

11.8%

2-1

10.6%

2-0

9.1%

0-0

6.7%

0-1

6.6%

1-2

6.1%

2-2

5.2%

3-0

5.1%

3-1

5.0%

0-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

São Paulo vs Santos — Recent Form

Santos have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. São Paulo have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Santos

São Paulo

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

São Paulo

4/5

Santos

3/5

Both Teams to Score

São Paulo

3/5

Santos

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

São Paulo

3/5

Santos

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

São Paulo

5/5

Santos

4/5

First Half Result

São Paulo

2/5

Santos

3/5

Correct Score

São Paulo

1/5

Santos

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Santos prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).