Botafogo vs Grêmio 3-2 Score & Prediction Review
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 21)
Botafogo3–2
GrêmioOn these chances Botafogo would usually take 1.5 points and Grêmio 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Botafogo.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Botafogo vs Grêmio stats: how the match was played
Serie A
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Botafogo had more than twice the shots on target
Botafogo
Grêmio
7
Shots on target
3
2
Big chances
1
3
Corners
3
2
Yellow cards
0
36%
Possession
64%
Botafogo vs Grêmio — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Botafogo to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Botafogo ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Botafogo 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Botafogo 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Grêmio 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Botafogo vs Grêmio 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Botafogo vs Grêmio. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Botafogo3
Grêmio2Winner
1 53%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Botafogo3Grêmio2Winner
1 53%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22% | 78% | 54% | 46% |
| 45% | 55% | 79% | 21% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
| 94% | 6% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
34%
X-1
20%
X-X
16%
2-2
10%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
13.4%
1-1
11.8%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
0-0
8.8%
0-1
7.4%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
5.3%
3-1
4.8%
2-2
4.1%
0-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score