Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 23)
Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio — Serie A Prediction Accuracy
Season 2026 · Round 23 · Regular Season
Full-Time Result
45.8% implied
Grêmio61.9%13/21+35.2%Strongly above implied probability
Atlético Mineiro57.1%12/21+24.7%Strongly above implied probabilityBoth Teams To Score
54.4% implied
Grêmio71.4%15/21+31.3%Strongly above implied probabilityAtlético Mineiro61.9%13/21+13.8%Strongly above implied probabilityOver/Under 2.5 Goals
54.3% implied
Grêmio57.1%12/21+5.2%Above implied probabilityAtlético Mineiro47.6%10/21-12.3%Below implied probabilityOver/Under 3.5 Goals
60.9% implied
Grêmio85.7%18/21+40.7%Strongly above implied probabilityAtlético Mineiro66.7%14/21+9.5%Above implied probabilityFirst Half Result
38.9% implied
Grêmio52.4%11/21+34.7%Strongly above implied probabilityAtlético Mineiro33.3%7/21-14.4%Below implied probabilityGrêmio4/21Atlético Mineiro5/21Our AI model tracks prediction accuracy for Atlético Mineiro and Grêmio across 6 betting markets. The cards above compare per-team accuracy against a bookmaker-implied probability baseline for each betting market.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals predictions for Grêmio hit at 86% accuracy — that's 40.7% above the bookmaker baseline of 60.9%, suggesting genuine betting value.
On the other hand, First Half Result predictions for Atlético Mineiro sit 14.4% below the bookmaker baseline — pricing is sharper here, so extra caution is warranted.
Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Atlético Mineiro–
Grêmio–Winner
1 58%
BTTS**
No 57%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Atlético Mineiro–Grêmio–Winner
1 58%
BTTS**
No 57%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 34% | 66% | 60% | 40% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 70% | 30% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21% | 79% | 54% | 46% |
| 52% | 48% | 85% | 15% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
| 97% | 3% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
36%
X-1
19%
X-X
17%
2-2
8%
X-2
7%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
16.1%
2-0
11.9%
1-1
11.7%
0-0
10.6%
2-1
9.6%
0-1
7.0%
3-0
5.9%
3-1
4.6%
1-2
4.2%
2-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio — Prediction Form & Streaks
Atlético Mineiro have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 11th in the table. Grêmio have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table.
Our football prediction algorithm has been reading Grêmio well in the Over/Under 3.5 Goals market, landing 3 correct predictions in a row. This level of consistency suggests a strong betting opportunity worth considering.
GrêmioAtlético MineiroGrêmioAtlético MineiroGrêmioAtlético MineiroGrêmioAtlético MineiroGrêmioAtlético MineiroGrêmioAtlético MineiroAtlético Mineiro & Grêmio Teams in Best Form
Atlético MineiroGrêmio