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Santos vs Mirassol

Santos vs Mirassol 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 24)

Robbed

Santos drew despite more chances

Santos

1–1

Mirassol

1.9Chances (xG)0.5

On these chances Santos would usually take 2.4 points and Mirassol 0.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Santos.

Santos −1.4 pts vs chancesMirassol +0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Santos vs Mirassol stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Santos had more than twice the shots on target

Santos

Mirassol

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

63%

Possession

37%

The match between Santos and Mirassol ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Santos win at 56% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Santos prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Santos vs Mirassol — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Santos to win

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 559 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.8% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 78%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 43%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Santos Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Santos 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Santos 2+ goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Mirassol Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Mirassol 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 82%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Santos vs Mirassol 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Santos vs Mirassol. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Santos1

Mirassol1

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Santos1

Mirassol1

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

156%

X25%

219%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	32%	68%	57%	43%	68%	32%	88%	12%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	32%	68%	57%	43%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	68%	32%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	21%	79%	54%	46%	79%	21%	93%	7%
	48%	52%	82%	18%	96%	4%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	21%	79%	54%	46%
	48%	52%	82%	18%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	79%	21%	93%	7%
	96%	4%	99%	1%

1st Half

142%

X43%

215%

1st Score

162%

X9%

229%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

38%

X-1

21%

X-X

15%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

14.8%

1-1

11.6%

2-0

11.0%

2-1

9.9%

0-0

9.4%

0-1

7.3%

3-0

5.7%

3-1

4.8%

1-2

4.7%

2-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Santos prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).