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Athletico PR vs Fluminense 3-3 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 25)

Robbed

Athletico PR drew despite more chances

Athletico PRAthletico PR

3–3

FluminenseFluminense
2.6Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Athletico PR would usually take 2.2 points and Fluminense 0.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Athletico PR.

Athletico PR −1.2 pts vs chancesFluminense +0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Athletico PR vs Fluminense stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Athletico PR

Fluminense

8

Shots on target

6

4

Big chances

1

8

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

2

46%

Possession

54%

The match between Athletico PR and Fluminense ended 3-3. Our AI model predicted a Athletico PR win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Santos prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Athletico PR vs Fluminense — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Athletico PR to win

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 65%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 83%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Athletico PR Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Athletico PR 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Fluminense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fluminense 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 82%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Athletico PR vs Fluminense 3-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Athletico PR vs Fluminense. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
Athletico PRAthletico PR3
FluminenseFluminense3

Winner

1X 78%

BTTS*

No 59%

Correct Score

1-0 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 65%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 73%

Full Time

148%
X31%
222%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT37%63%65%35%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT73%27%92%8%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Athletico PR27%73%63%37%
Fluminense47%53%81%19%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Athletico PR86%14%96%4%
Fluminense95%5%99%1%

1st Half

131%
X50%
219%

1st Score

152%
X12%
236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-X

23%

X-1

16%

2-2

12%

X-2

10%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-0

15.7%

1-1

13.8%

0-0

12.5%

2-0

10.2%

0-1

9.1%

2-1

8.6%

1-2

5.0%

3-0

4.2%

2-2

3.5%

0-2

3.4%

3-1

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Santos prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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