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Grêmio vs Chapecoense 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 25)

Smash-and-grab

Grêmio won with less than half the chances

GrêmioGrêmio

3–1

ChapecoenseChapecoense
1.2Chances (xG)3.2

On these chances Grêmio would usually take 0.5 points and Chapecoense 2.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Grêmio.

Grêmio +2.6 pts vs chancesChapecoense −2.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Grêmio vs Chapecoense stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Chapecoense had clearly more shots on target

Grêmio

Chapecoense

5

Shots on target

9

1

Big chances

5

5

Corners

7

2

Yellow cards

2

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Grêmio and Chapecoense ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Grêmio win with 63% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Grêmio – Cruzeiro prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Grêmio vs Chapecoense — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Grêmio to win

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 1,061 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 5,719 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,854 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 76%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 3,678 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Grêmio ahead at half-time.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Grêmio Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Grêmio 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,822 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Chapecoense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chapecoense 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 85%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Grêmio vs Chapecoense 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Grêmio vs Chapecoense. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
GrêmioGrêmio3
ChapecoenseChapecoense1

Winner

1 63%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

163%
X23%
214%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT28%72%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Grêmio16%84%46%54%
Chapecoense53%47%85%15%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Grêmio74%26%90%10%
Chapecoense97%3%99%1%

1st Half

143%
X44%
213%

1st Score

167%
X8%
225%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

36%

X-1

21%

X-X

16%

2-2

7%

X-2

6%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

14.6%

2-0

12.9%

1-1

10.7%

2-1

10.2%

0-0

8.0%

3-0

7.5%

3-1

5.5%

0-1

5.4%

1-2

3.8%

2-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Grêmio – Cruzeiro prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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