Vitória vs Grêmio 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 26)
Vitória1–0
GrêmioOn these chances Vitória would usually take 2.0 points and Grêmio 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Vitória.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Vitória vs Grêmio stats: how the match was played
Serie A
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Vitória
Grêmio
6
Shots on target
5
2
Big chances
0
6
Corners
1
2
Yellow cards
5
45%
Possession
55%
Vitória vs Grêmio — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Vitória to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,511 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.2% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,185 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,678 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 4,242 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.7% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Our model’s pick
Vitória 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,476 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
Grêmio 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,601 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Vitória vs Grêmio 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Vitória vs Grêmio. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Vitória1
Grêmio0Winner
1X 76%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Vitória1Grêmio0Winner
1X 76%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 29% | 71% | 53% | 47% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 77% | 56% | 44% |
| 41% | 59% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
26%
X-1
19%
X-X
18%
2-2
12%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
12.4%
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.9%
0-0
8.5%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
6.3%
3-0
4.8%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
4.6%
0-2
3.6%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score