São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro 2-0 Score & Prediction Review
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 26)
São Paulo2–0
Atlético MineiroOn these chances São Paulo would usually take 2.6 points and Atlético Mineiro 0.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: São Paulo.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro stats: how the match was played
Serie A
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
São Paulo had more than twice the shots on target
São Paulo
Atlético Mineiro
5
Shots on target
0
4
Big chances
1
16
Corners
2
1
Yellow cards
1
50%
Possession
50%
São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
São Paulo to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectOur track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Our model’s pick
São Paulo 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
Atlético Mineiro 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
São Paulo2
Atlético Mineiro0Winner
1 52%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
São Paulo2Atlético Mineiro0Winner
1 52%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 28% | 72% | 54% | 46% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21% | 79% | 54% | 46% |
| 43% | 57% | 78% | 22% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
| 94% | 6% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
30%
X-X
20%
X-1
18%
2-2
9%
X-2
8%
1-X
6%
2-X
4%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.8%
1-0
12.7%
2-1
10.4%
2-0
9.6%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.0%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
4.6%
0-2
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score