Palmeiras vs São Paulo 2-0 Score & Prediction Review
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 27)
Palmeiras2–0
São PauloOn these chances Palmeiras would usually take 2.2 points and São Paulo 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Palmeiras.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Palmeiras vs São Paulo stats: how the match was played
Serie A
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Palmeiras had more than twice the shots on target
Palmeiras
São Paulo
7
Shots on target
2
5
Big chances
2
9
Corners
6
4
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
1
57%
Possession
44%
Palmeiras vs São Paulo — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Palmeiras to win
CorrectOur track record
In 1,062 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectOur track record
In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Palmeiras ahead at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Our model’s pick
Palmeiras 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
São Paulo 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Palmeiras vs São Paulo 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Palmeiras vs São Paulo. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Palmeiras2
São Paulo0Winner
1 64%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 67%
Palmeiras2São Paulo0Winner
1 64%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 67%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 67% | 33% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17% | 83% | 47% | 53% |
| 55% | 45% | 86% | 14% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 26% | 90% | 10% |
| 97% | 3% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
42%
X-1
21%
X-X
14%
2-2
6%
X-2
5%
1-X
4%
2-1
3%
2-X
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
15.9%
2-0
13.2%
1-1
10.4%
2-1
10.1%
0-0
8.6%
3-0
7.7%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.2%
1-2
3.3%
2-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score