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Flamengo vs Fluminense

Flamengo vs Fluminense 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 30)

Fair result

Flamengo

1–0

Fluminense

1.6Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Flamengo would usually take 1.6 points and Fluminense 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Flamengo.

Flamengo +1.4 pts vs chancesFluminense −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Flamengo vs Fluminense stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Flamengo had clearly more shots on target

Flamengo

Fluminense

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

43%

Possession

57%

The match between Flamengo and Fluminense ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Flamengo win with 69% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Internacional prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Flamengo vs Fluminense — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Flamengo to win

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 615 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.4% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 536 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 2,848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 4,543 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Flamengo ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 1,252 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.0% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).

Flamengo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Flamengo 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,468 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Fluminense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fluminense 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 87%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.3% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Flamengo vs Fluminense 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Flamengo vs Fluminense. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Flamengo1

Fluminense0

Winner

1 69%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Flamengo1

Fluminense0

Winner

1 69%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

169%

X20%

211%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	26%	74%	51%	49%	64%	36%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	26%	74%	51%	49%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	64%	36%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	14%	86%	42%	58%	70%	30%	87%	13%
	57%	43%	87%	13%	98%	2%	100%	0%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	14%	86%	42%	58%
	57%	43%	87%	13%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	70%	30%	87%	13%
	98%	2%	100%	0%

1st Half

153%

X35%

212%

1st Score

174%

X7%

219%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

46%

X-1

22%

X-X

11%

2-2

1-X

X-2

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

14.8%

2-0

13.8%

2-1

10.6%

1-1

9.4%

3-0

8.5%

0-0

7.2%

3-1

5.9%

0-1

4.4%

2-2

3.2%

1-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Flamengo vs Fluminense — Recent Form

Flamengo have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Fluminense have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Flamengo

Fluminense

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Flamengo

3/5

Fluminense

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Flamengo

1/5

Fluminense

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Flamengo

2/5

Fluminense

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Flamengo

3/5

Fluminense

3/5

First Half Result

Flamengo

3/5

Fluminense

3/5

Correct Score

Flamengo

1/5

Fluminense

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Internacional prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).