Fast starters
9/10Flamengo scored first in 9 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Flamengo vs Fluminense Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 30)
Fast starters
Flamengo scored first in 9 of their last 10 (league 47%).
9/10Scored first · Flamengo
Bookmakers: Flamengo 70% to winFluminense 10%
Flamengo vs Fluminense score prediction
Serie A
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Flamengo expected to score more than twice as many as Fluminense
2.8 goals in total, a little over the Serie A average of 2.7.
goals expected
Flamengo1.9
Fluminense0.8Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Flamengo vs Fluminense: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Flamengo vs Fluminense — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Flamengo to win
Our model 68%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 593 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.0% of the time (bookmakers said 71.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 56%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 5,496 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 45%
Our track record
In 2,766 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 74%Bookmakers 67%
Our track record
In 4,428 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.7%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Flamengo ahead at half-time
Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 1,199 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.2% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).
Flamengo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Flamengo 2+ goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 3,340 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Fluminense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Fluminense 0–1 goals
Our model 87%Bookmakers 85%
Our track record
In 591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 84.8% of the time (bookmakers said 85.2%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Flamengo vs Fluminense — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Flamengo vs Fluminense. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Flamengo–
Fluminense–Winner
1 68%
BTTS*
No 56%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Flamengo–Fluminense–Winner
1 68%
BTTS*
No 56%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Full Time
168%
X21%
211%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 26% | 74% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 64% | 36% | 84% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14% | 86% | 42% | 58% |
| 56% | 44% | 87% | 13% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 30% | 87% | 13% |
| 97% | 3% | 100% | 0% |
1st Half
153%
X36%
211%
1st Score
173%
X7%
219%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
45%
X-1
22%
X-X
12%
2-2
5%
1-X
4%
X-2
4%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
14.4%
2-0
13.6%
2-1
10.7%
1-1
9.7%
3-0
8.5%
0-0
7.3%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
4.4%
2-2
3.3%
1-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Flamengo vs Fluminense: the stats that stand out
Serie A
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Flamengo: fast starters, always on the scoresheet and banker as favourites
9/10Always on the scoresheet
0/10Flamengo scored in all of their last 10 (league 25% fail to score).
Banker as favourites
7/10Flamengo won 7 of 10 as favourites (league 53%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Flamengo vs Fluminense: attack vs defence
Serie A
How to read it
other Serie A teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Flamengo: good attack, good defence (1.93 xG, 1.09 xGA a game)
- Fluminense: good attack, good defence (1.58 xG, 1.42 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Flamengo vs Fluminense form and luck check
Serie A
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Serie A gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- FlamengoBookmakers: 70% to win today.+1.3
- FluminenseBookmakers: 10% to win today.+1.7
Last 5 matches
FlamengoW
W
W
W
W
FluminenseW
L
W
D
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Flamengo 1st of 20 · Fluminense 3rd of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Flamengo vs Fluminense: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Serie A
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Serie A gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Flamengo and Fluminense games more often than the Serie A average (55%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 52%
Flamengo5 of 10
Fluminense5 of 10
BTTSleague 55%
Flamengo6 of 10
Fluminense8 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 397 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Flamengo vs Fluminense corners, cards and goal times
Serie A
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameFluminense score late
Flamengo
Fluminense
6.7
Corners won · league 5.1
5.6
3.4
Corners conceded · league 5.1
5.8
1.5
Cards · league 2.5
2.8
2.4
Opponents' cards · league 2.5
2.7
35%
Goals before half-time · league 45%
19%
25%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
50%
14%
Conceded before half-time · league 45%
38%
57%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
31%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Flamengo5/5
Fluminense3/5
Both Teams to Score
Flamengo3/5
Fluminense1/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Flamengo4/5
Fluminense1/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Flamengo5/5
Fluminense2/5
First Half Result
Flamengo4/5
Fluminense3/5
Correct Score
Flamengo1/5
Fluminense1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction