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Bahia vs Flamengo

Bahia vs Flamengo 0-3 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 31)

Fair result

Bahia

0–3

Flamengo

0.9Chances (xG)3.9

On these chances Bahia would usually take 0.2 points and Flamengo 2.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Flamengo.

Bahia −0.2 pts vs chancesFlamengo +0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Bahia vs Flamengo stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Flamengo had more than twice the shots on target

Bahia

Flamengo

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

37%

Possession

63%

The match between Bahia and Flamengo ended 0-3. Our AI model predicted a Bahia win at 36% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bahia – São Paulo prediction & betting tips (Oct 29, 2026).

Bahia vs Flamengo — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bahia to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Flamengo to win.

Our model 36%Bookmakers 23%

Our track record

In 1,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 6,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 76%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 3,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 42%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 6,632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

Bahia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bahia 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Flamengo Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Flamengo 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Flamengo 2+ goals.

Our model 66%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 135 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 65–70%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Bahia vs Flamengo 0-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Bahia vs Flamengo. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Bahia0

Flamengo3

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Bahia0

Flamengo3

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

136%

X29%

235%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	28%	72%	53%	47%	66%	34%	88%	12%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	28%	72%	53%	47%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	30%	70%	65%	35%	87%	13%	96%	4%
	31%	69%	66%	34%	87%	13%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	30%	70%	65%	35%
	31%	69%	66%	34%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	87%	13%	96%	4%
	87%	13%	96%	4%

1st Half

132%

X42%

226%

1st Score

149%

X9%

243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

X-X

18%

2-2

18%

X-1

14%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

13.4%

1-0

10.0%

0-1

9.6%

2-1

8.8%

0-0

8.6%

1-2

8.2%

2-0

6.0%

0-2

5.7%

2-2

5.6%

3-1

3.0%

1-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Bahia vs Flamengo — Recent Form

Flamengo have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Bahia have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Flamengo

Bahia

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Bahia

3/5

Flamengo

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Bahia

3/5

Flamengo

1/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Bahia

1/5

Flamengo

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Bahia

5/5

Flamengo

3/5

First Half Result

Bahia

4/5

Flamengo

3/5

Correct Score

Bahia

3/5

Flamengo

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bahia – São Paulo prediction & betting tips (Oct 29, 2026).