Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 31)
Atlético Mineiro1–0
CoritibaOn these chances Atlético Mineiro would usually take 2.1 points and Coritiba 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Mineiro.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba stats: how the match was played
Serie A
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Atlético Mineiro had more than twice the shots on target
Atlético Mineiro
Coritiba
10
Shots on target
3
2
Big chances
1
10
Corners
5
0
Yellow cards
2
58%
Possession
42%
Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Atlético Mineiro to win
CorrectOur track record
In 615 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.4% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,148 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,543 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).
Our model’s pick
Atlético Mineiro ahead at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 1,252 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.0% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).
Our model’s pick
Atlético Mineiro 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,468 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Coritiba 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.3% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Atlético Mineiro1
Coritiba0Winner
1 67%
BTTS*
No 55%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Atlético Mineiro1Coritiba0Winner
1 67%
BTTS*
No 55%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 60% | 40% | 81% | 19% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14% | 86% | 41% | 59% |
| 55% | 45% | 86% | 14% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 32% | 86% | 14% |
| 97% | 3% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
46%
X-1
21%
X-X
12%
2-2
5%
1-X
4%
X-2
4%
2-1
4%
2-X
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
13.5%
2-0
12.3%
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.7%
3-0
8.3%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.5%
0-1
4.7%
2-2
3.6%
1-2
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Atlético Mineiro vs Coritiba — Recent Form
Atlético Mineiro have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table. Coritiba have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 12th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Atlético MineiroCoritibaOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Atlético MineiroCoritibaBoth Teams to Score
Atlético MineiroCoritibaOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Atlético MineiroCoritibaOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Atlético MineiroCoritibaFirst Half Result
Atlético MineiroCoritibaCorrect Score
Atlético MineiroCoritiba