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Fluminense vs Santos

Fluminense vs Santos 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 31)

Fair result

Fluminense

1–2

Santos

0.7Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Fluminense would usually take 0.6 points and Santos 2.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Fluminense.

Fluminense −0.6 pts vs chancesSantos +0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Fluminense vs Santos stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Santos had more than twice the shots on target

Fluminense

Santos

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Fluminense and Santos ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Fluminense win at 57% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Santos – Palmeiras prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Fluminense vs Santos — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fluminense to win

Wrong

Our model 57%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,801 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,704 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,304 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 68%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 3,961 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fluminense ahead at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 2,250 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Fluminense Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fluminense 2+ goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Fluminense 0–1 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,865 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Santos Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Santos 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 75%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,567 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Fluminense vs Santos 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Fluminense vs Santos. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Fluminense1

Santos2

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

2-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Fluminense1

Santos2

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

2-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

157%

X23%

220%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	44%	56%	58%	42%	81%	19%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	44%	56%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	58%	42%	81%	19%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	16%	84%	46%	54%	73%	27%	89%	11%
	42%	58%	75%	25%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	16%	84%	46%	54%
	42%	58%	75%	25%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	73%	27%	89%	11%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

142%

X41%

217%

1st Score

163%

X6%

231%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

36%

X-1

21%

X-X

13%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

2-1

10.9%

1-0

10.9%

1-1

10.8%

2-0

9.0%

3-1

5.9%

1-2

5.8%

3-0

5.7%

0-0

5.5%

0-1

5.4%

2-2

5.4%

3-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Fluminense vs Santos — Recent Form

Santos have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Fluminense have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Santos

Fluminense

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Fluminense

2/5

Santos

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Fluminense

4/5

Santos

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Fluminense

2/5

Santos

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Fluminense

3/5

Santos

4/5

First Half Result

Fluminense

3/5

Santos

3/5

Correct Score

Fluminense

1/5

Santos

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Santos – Palmeiras prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).