Fast starters
5/7Frosinone scored first in 5 of their last 7 (league 46%).
Atalanta vs Frosinone Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie A - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)
Riding their luck
Frosinone are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+6points more than their chances usually bring in their last 7 with xG
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Frosinone 18% to winAtalanta 60%
Atalanta vs Frosinone score prediction
Serie A
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.2 goals expected
3.2 goals in total: more goals than a typical Serie A game (average 2.5).
goals expected
Atalanta1.9Frosinone1.3Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Atalanta vs Frosinone: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Atalanta vs Frosinone — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Atalanta to win
Our model 51%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 2,474 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 58%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 5,659 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 67%
Our track record
In 5,277 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 3,947 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Atalanta ahead at half-time
Our model 46%Bookmakers 46%
Our track record
In 4,217 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.7% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Atalanta Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Atalanta 2+ goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 2,803 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Frosinone Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Frosinone 0–1 goals
Our model 69%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 3,257 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Atalanta vs Frosinone — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Atalanta vs Frosinone. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Atalanta–
Frosinone–Winner
1 50%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 56%
Atalanta–Frosinone–Winner
1 50%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 56%
Full Time
150%
X23%
226%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 20% | 80% | 42% | 58% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 56% | 44% | 80% | 20% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 80% | 49% | 51% |
| 36% | 64% | 69% | 31% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 25% | 90% | 10% |
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
146%
X34%
220%
1st Score
162%
X5%
233%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
36%
X-1
15%
X-X
13%
2-2
12%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.0%
2-1
10.1%
1-0
9.1%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
6.8%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.8%
3-1
5.5%
0-0
5.2%
3-0
4.7%
3-2
3.7%
0-2
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Atalanta vs Frosinone: the stats that stand out
Serie A
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Frosinone: fast starters
5/7Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Atalanta vs Frosinone: attack vs defence
Serie A
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Serie A teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Atalanta: weak attack, weak defence (1.39 xG, 1.82 xGA a game)
- Frosinone: good attack, weak defence (1.68 xG, 2.01 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Atalanta vs Frosinone form and luck check
Serie A
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Serie A gamesFrosinone are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- AtalantaBookmakers: 60% to win today.+1.2
- FrosinoneBookmakers: 18% to win today. · 7 of 10 games+5.6
Last 5 matches
FrosinoneW
L
W
D
W
AtalantaW
L
L
L
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Atalanta 7th of 20 · Frosinone 11th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Atalanta vs Frosinone: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Serie A
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent Serie A gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Atalanta games more often than the Serie A average (47%), in Frosinone games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 48%
Atalanta5 of 10
Frosinone4 of 7
BTTSleague 47%
Atalanta6 of 10
Frosinone3 of 7
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 381 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Atalanta vs Frosinone corners, cards and goal times
Serie A
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameFrosinone: last 7 with these statsBoth sides score early
Atalanta
Frosinone
3.5
Corners won · league 4.4
5.4
4.5
Corners conceded · league 4.4
6.9
1.4
Cards · league 1.9
1.7
0.8
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
2.4
58%
Goals before half-time · league 43%
77%
17%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
8%
33%
Conceded before half-time · league 43%
56%
50%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
11%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Atalanta4/5
Frosinone3/5
Both Teams to Score
Atalanta2/5
Frosinone3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Atalanta2/5
Frosinone3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Atalanta4/5
Frosinone3/5
First Half Result
Atalanta4/5
Frosinone1/5
Correct Score
Atalanta0/5
Frosinone1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction