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Juventus vs Milan 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Robbed

Juventus drew despite more chances

JuventusJuventus

1–1

MilanMilan
1.5Chances (xG)0.2

On these chances Juventus would usually take 2.4 points and Milan 0.4; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Juventus.

Juventus −1.4 pts vs chancesMilan +0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Juventus vs Milan stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Juventus had more than twice the shots on target

Juventus

Milan

5

Shots on target

1

3

Big chances

0

7

Corners

1

1

Yellow cards

3

49%

Possession

52%

The match between Juventus and Milan ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Juventus win at 51% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Milan – Atalanta prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Juventus vs Milan — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Juventus to win

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 45%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Juventus Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Juventus 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Milan Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Milan 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Juventus vs Milan 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Juventus vs Milan. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Italy
JuventusJuventus1
MilanMilan1

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

151%
X25%
224%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%50%50%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT61%39%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Juventus21%79%53%47%
Milan40%60%74%26%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Juventus78%22%92%8%
Milan91%9%98%2%

1st Half

136%
X45%
219%

1st Score

156%
X7%
237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

18%

X-X

17%

2-2

12%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.9%

1-0

11.6%

2-1

9.9%

2-0

8.8%

0-0

7.0%

0-1

6.9%

1-2

5.9%

3-1

5.1%

2-2

5.0%

3-0

4.6%

0-2

3.7%

3-2

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Milan – Atalanta prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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