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Venezia vs Fiorentina 2-4 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)

Fair result
VeneziaVenezia

2–4

FiorentinaFiorentina
1.0Chances (xG)2.5

On these chances Venezia would usually take 0.6 points and Fiorentina 2.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Fiorentina.

Venezia −0.6 pts vs chancesFiorentina +0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Venezia vs Fiorentina stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Fiorentina had more than twice the shots on target

Venezia

Fiorentina

3

Shots on target

10

2

Big chances

6

2

Corners

4

2

Yellow cards

1

62%

Possession

38%

The match between Venezia and Fiorentina ended 2-4. Our AI model predicted a Venezia win at 55% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fiorentina – Como prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Venezia vs Fiorentina — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Venezia to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Fiorentina to win.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Venezia ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 30%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Venezia Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Venezia 2+ goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Venezia 0–1 goals.

Our model 59%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 1,027 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.

Fiorentina Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fiorentina 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Venezia vs Fiorentina 2-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Venezia vs Fiorentina. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Italy
VeneziaVenezia2
FiorentinaFiorentina4

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

2-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 54%

Full Time

155%
X22%
223%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT15%85%34%66%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT46%54%71%29%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Venezia17%83%41%59%
Fiorentina40%60%69%31%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Venezia66%34%84%16%
Fiorentina87%13%95%5%

1st Half

143%
X39%
217%

1st Score

165%
X4%
231%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

38%

X-1

21%

X-X

14%

2-2

8%

X-2

5%

2-X

5%

1-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

2-1

9.4%

1-1

9.0%

1-0

7.2%

2-0

7.2%

3-1

6.5%

2-2

6.0%

3-0

5.7%

1-2

5.5%

0-0

4.2%

0-1

4.1%

3-2

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fiorentina – Como prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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