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Parma vs Genoa

Parma vs Genoa 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Fair result

Parma

2–1

Genoa

0.6Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Parma would usually take 0.9 points and Genoa 1.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Genoa.

Parma +2.1 pts vs chancesGenoa −1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Parma vs Genoa stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Genoa had more than twice the shots on target

Parma

Genoa

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

43%

Possession

57%

The match between Parma and Genoa ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Parma win with 40% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Parma – Torino prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

Parma vs Genoa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Parma to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Genoa to win.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 28%

Our track record

In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 63%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 83%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Parma Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Parma 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Genoa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Genoa 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 75%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Parma vs Genoa 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Parma vs Genoa. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Italy

Parma2

Genoa1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 73%

· FT

Serie A - Italy

Parma2

Genoa1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 73%

Full Time

140%

X30%

230%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	37%	63%	63%	37%	73%	27%	92%	8%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	37%	63%	63%	37%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	73%	27%	92%	8%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	32%	68%	68%	32%	89%	11%	97%	3%
	40%	60%	75%	25%	93%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	32%	68%	68%	32%
	40%	60%	75%	25%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	89%	11%	97%	3%
	93%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

129%

X48%

223%

1st Score

149%

X12%

238%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

23%

1-1

22%

2-2

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-0

13.6%

1-1

13.2%

0-0

12.4%

0-1

11.0%

2-1

7.9%

2-0

7.6%

1-2

6.7%

0-2

5.3%

2-2

4.0%

3-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Parma vs Genoa — Recent Form

Parma have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 17th in the table. Genoa have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 19th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Parma

Genoa

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Genoa

4/5

Parma

4/5

Both Teams to Score

Genoa

4/5

Parma

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Genoa

2/5

Parma

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Genoa

4/5

Parma

5/5

First Half Result

Genoa

0/5

Parma

2/5

Correct Score

Genoa

1/5

Parma

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Parma – Torino prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).