Brick wall
8/10Vila Nova kept 8 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 30%).
Náutico vs Vila Nova Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie B - Season 2026 (Round 33)
Riding their luck
Vila Nova are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+7points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Náutico vs Vila Nova score prediction
Serie B
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.4 goals in total, a little over the Serie B average of 2.3.
goals expected
Náutico1.3Vila Nova1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →The match Náutico vs Vila Nova will be played on Sunday, October 11 as part of the 2026 season. This fixture will be played in the Round 33 of the Serie B, played in Brazil. On this page, you’ll find our detailed football prediction for Náutico vs Vila Nova, including full-time result (1X2) probabilities, draw chances, and additional betting insights. Our predictions are generated using data-driven models that analyze team form, recent performances, and historical trends to deliver reliable match forecasts.
Náutico vs Vila Nova — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Náutico vs Vila Nova. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Náutico–
Vila Nova–Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Náutico–Vila Nova–Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Full Time
155%
X25%
220%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 28% | 72% | 53% | 47% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 64% | 36% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19% | 81% | 51% | 49% |
| 44% | 56% | 79% | 21% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 22% | 92% | 8% |
| 94% | 6% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
137%
X47%
217%
1st Score
161%
X8%
232%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
31%
X-1
20%
X-X
18%
2-2
9%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
13.2%
1-1
12.1%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
10.4%
0-0
7.7%
0-1
6.9%
3-0
5.3%
3-1
5.3%
1-2
5.0%
2-2
4.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Náutico vs Vila Nova: the stats that stand out
Serie B
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Vila Nova: brick wall, hard to break and banker as favourites
8/10Hard to break
1/10Vila Nova conceded first in only 1 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Banker as favourites
5/6Vila Nova won 5 of 6 as favourites (league 47%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Náutico vs Vila Nova: attack vs defence
Serie B
How to read it
other Serie B teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Náutico: good attack, weak defence (1.71 xG, 1.68 xGA a game)
- Vila Nova: weak attack, good defence (1.46 xG, 1.17 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Náutico vs Vila Nova form and luck check
Serie B
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Serie B gamesVila Nova are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- Náutico+2.1
- Vila NovaClinical · +5 goals+7.2
Last 5 matches
Vila NovaW
W
W
D
W
NáuticoD
W
L
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Náutico 10th of 20 · Vila Nova 8th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Náutico vs Vila Nova: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Serie B
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Serie B gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Vila Nova games less often than the Serie B average (49%), in Náutico games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 44%
Náutico5 of 10
Vila Nova2 of 10
BTTSleague 49%
Náutico7 of 10
Vila Nova1 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 393 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Náutico vs Vila Nova corners, cards and goal times
Serie B
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameNáutico score late
Náutico
Vila Nova
6.4
Corners won · league 5.2
4.7
4.7
Corners conceded · league 5.2
6.8
2.5
Cards · league 2.5
2.1
1.4
Opponents' cards · league 2.5
2.5
29%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
53%
43%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
12%
54%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
67%
23%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
17%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Vila Nova3/5
Náutico3/5
Both Teams to Score
Vila Nova3/5
Náutico4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Vila Nova4/5
Náutico1/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Vila Nova5/5
Náutico3/5
First Half Result
Vila Nova2/5
Náutico2/5
Correct Score
Vila Nova2/5
Náutico1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction