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Náutico vs Vila Nova

Náutico vs Vila Nova 0-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2026 (Round 33)

Fair result

Náutico

0–2

Vila Nova

1.2Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Náutico would usually take 1.5 points and Vila Nova 1.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Vila Nova.

Náutico −1.5 pts vs chancesVila Nova +1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Náutico vs Vila Nova stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Náutico

Vila Nova

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

56%

Possession

44%

The match between Náutico and Vila Nova ended 0-2. Our AI model predicted a Náutico win at 51% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Vila Nova – Juventude prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Náutico vs Vila Nova — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Náutico to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Vila Nova to win.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 111 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.5% than to our 50–55%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,093 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,142 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 76%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,633 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,268 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Náutico Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Náutico 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,462 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Vila Nova Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vila Nova 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 77%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,567 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Náutico vs Vila Nova 0-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Náutico vs Vila Nova. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie B - Brazil

Náutico0

Vila Nova2

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

Serie B - Brazil

Náutico0

Vila Nova2

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

151%

X27%

223%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%	66%	34%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	22%	78%	55%	45%	81%	19%	93%	7%
	42%	58%	77%	23%	93%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	22%	78%	55%	45%
	42%	58%	77%	23%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	81%	19%	93%	7%
	93%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

133%

X48%

219%

1st Score

157%

X8%

235%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

X-1

18%

X-X

18%

2-2

11%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

12.9%

1-1

12.7%

2-1

10.1%

2-0

9.3%

0-0

8.3%

0-1

7.6%

1-2

6.0%

3-1

4.7%

2-2

4.7%

3-0

4.7%

0-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Náutico vs Vila Nova — Recent Form

Vila Nova have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Náutico have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 16th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Vila Nova

Náutico

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Vila Nova

1/5

Náutico

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Vila Nova

4/5

Náutico

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Vila Nova

3/5

Náutico

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Vila Nova

3/5

Náutico

4/5

First Half Result

Vila Nova

2/5

Náutico

2/5

Correct Score

Vila Nova

0/5

Náutico

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Vila Nova – Juventude prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).