Home
Leagues
Serie B
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza

Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2026 (Round 35)

Robbed

Fortaleza drew despite more chances

Ponte Preta

2–2

Fortaleza

1.3Chances (xG)3.0

On these chances Ponte Preta would usually take 0.6 points and Fortaleza 2.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Fortaleza.

Ponte Preta +0.4 pts vs chancesFortaleza −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Ponte Preta

Fortaleza

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

23%

Possession

77%

The match between Ponte Preta and Fortaleza ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Fortaleza win at 63% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Criciúma – Ponte Preta prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).

Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fortaleza to win

Wrong

Our model 63%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,065 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.7% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,708 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 804 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 78%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Fortaleza ahead at half-time.

Our model 47%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 549 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 34.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.8% than to our 45–50%.

Ponte Preta Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ponte Preta 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 87%Bookmakers 90%

Our track record

In 119 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 86.6% of the time (bookmakers said 84.9%).

Fortaleza Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fortaleza 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 1,021 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 59.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie B - Brazil

Ponte Preta2

Fortaleza2

Winner

2 63%

BTTS*

No 58%

Correct Score

0-1 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

· FT

Serie B - Brazil

Ponte Preta2

Fortaleza2

Winner

2 63%

BTTS*

No 58%

Correct Score

0-1 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

113%

X24%

263%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	31%	69%	57%	43%	68%	32%	88%	12%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	31%	69%	57%	43%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	68%	32%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	55%	45%	87%	13%	98%	2%	100%	0%
	18%	82%	48%	52%	76%	24%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	55%	45%	87%	13%
	18%	82%	48%	52%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	98%	2%	100%	0%
	76%	24%	91%	9%

1st Half

116%

X47%

237%

1st Score

126%

X9%

264%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

34%

X-2

22%

X-X

18%

1-1

X-1

1-X

1-2

2-X

2-1

Correct Score

0-1

15.6%

0-2

13.6%

1-1

10.7%

1-2

10.5%

0-0

9.4%

0-3

6.9%

1-0

5.9%

1-3

5.2%

2-1

3.5%

2-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza — Recent Form

Fortaleza have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table. Ponte Preta have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 20th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Fortaleza

Ponte Preta

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Fortaleza

1/5

Ponte Preta

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Fortaleza

3/5

Ponte Preta

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Fortaleza

3/5

Ponte Preta

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Fortaleza

3/5

Ponte Preta

3/5

First Half Result

Fortaleza

1/5

Ponte Preta

2/5

Correct Score

Fortaleza

1/5

Ponte Preta

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Criciúma – Ponte Preta prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).