Always chasing
8/10Ponte Preta conceded first in 8 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Criciúma vs Ponte Preta Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie B - Season 2026 (Round 36)
Always chasing
Ponte Preta conceded first in 8 of their last 10 (league 46%).
8/10Conceded first · Ponte Preta
Bookmakers: Ponte Preta 2% to winCriciúma 91%
Criciúma vs Ponte Preta score prediction
Serie B
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Criciúma expected to score more than twice as many as Ponte Preta
2.7 goals in total: more goals than a typical Serie B game (average 2.3).
goals expected
Criciúma2.1Ponte Preta0.5Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Criciúma vs Ponte Preta: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Criciúma vs Ponte Preta — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie B
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Criciúma to win
Our model 90%Bookmakers 91%
Our track record
Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 66%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 407 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.9% of the time (bookmakers said 65.4%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 71%Bookmakers 71%
Our track record
In 294 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.1% of the time (bookmakers said 71.3%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 3.5 goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 287 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.5% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Criciúma ahead at half-time
Our model 61%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 110 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Criciúma Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Criciúma 2+ goals
Our model 83%Bookmakers 83%
Our track record
In 392 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.3%).
Ponte Preta Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Ponte Preta 0–1 goals
Our model 96%Bookmakers 94%
Our track record
Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Criciúma vs Ponte Preta — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Criciúma vs Ponte Preta. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Criciúma–
Ponte Preta–Winner
1 90%
BTTS*
No 66%
Correct Score
3-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 71%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 61%
Criciúma–Ponte Preta–Winner
1 90%
BTTS*
No 66%
Correct Score
3-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 71%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 61%
Full Time
190%
X7%
23%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 13% | 87% | 29% | 71% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 39% | 61% | 57% | 43% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | 95% | 17% | 83% |
| 78% | 22% | 96% | 4% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37% | 63% | 59% | 41% |
| 99% | 1% | 100% | 0% |
1st Half
161%
X33%
26%
1st Score
185%
X3%
212%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
62%
X-1
19%
X-X
8%
2-1
3%
1-X
2%
X-2
2%
2-X
2%
2-2
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
3-0
14.3%
2-0
12.6%
1-0
8.1%
3-1
6.3%
2-1
5.9%
1-1
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Criciúma vs Ponte Preta: the stats that stand out
Serie B
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Ponte Preta: always chasing, shot-shy and leaky
8/10Shot-shy
6/10Ponte Preta failed to score in 6 of their last 10 (league 31%).
Leaky
1/10Ponte Preta kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 31%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Criciúma vs Ponte Preta: attack vs defence
Serie B
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Serie B teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Criciúma: weak attack, good defence (1.33 xG, 0.95 xGA a game)
- Ponte Preta: weak attack, weak defence (1.01 xG, 2.26 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Criciúma vs Ponte Preta form and luck check
Serie B
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Serie B gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- CriciúmaBookmakers: 91% to win today.−2.4
- Ponte PretaBookmakers: 2% to win today.+2.1
Last 5 matches
CriciúmaL
W
W
L
W
Ponte PretaD
D
L
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Criciúma 5th of 20 · Ponte Preta 20th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Criciúma vs Ponte Preta: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Serie B
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Serie B gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Criciúma and Ponte Preta games less often than the Serie B average (47%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 43%
Criciúma3 of 10
Ponte Preta3 of 10
BTTSleague 47%
Criciúma1 of 10
Ponte Preta3 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 391 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Criciúma vs Ponte Preta corners, cards and goal times
Serie B
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.4
- Cards: league 2.4
- Goals before half-time: league 44%
- Goals after 75': league 24%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Criciúma4/5
Ponte Preta3/5
Both Teams to Score
Criciúma3/5
Ponte Preta2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Criciúma4/5
Ponte Preta3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Criciúma5/5
Ponte Preta3/5
First Half Result
Criciúma4/5
Ponte Preta2/5
Correct Score
Criciúma1/5
Ponte Preta0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction