São Bernardo vs Athletic Club Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie B - Season 2026 (Round 38)
São Bernardo are taking more points than their chances usually bring
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club score prediction
Serie B
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
São Bernardo expected to create clearly more
2.5 goals in total, a little over the Serie B average of 2.4.
goals expected
São Bernardo1.5
Athletic Club1.0Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →São Bernardo vs Athletic Club — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie B
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
São Bernardo to win
Our track record
In 3,608 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 6,446 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.1% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 2,863 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 3,550 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 4,262 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
São Bernardo 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 392 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.0% than to our 60–65%.
Our model’s pick
Athletic Club 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 3,310 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.5%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for São Bernardo vs Athletic Club. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
São Bernardo–
Athletic Club–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
São Bernardo–Athletic Club–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 29% | 71% | 54% | 46% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27% | 73% | 61% | 39% |
| 35% | 65% | 70% | 30% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
22%
X-X
20%
X-1
16%
2-2
15%
X-2
12%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.9%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
9.0%
0-0
8.5%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.3%
2-2
5.1%
0-2
4.7%
3-1
3.9%
3-0
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club: attack vs defence
Serie B
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Serie B teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- São Bernardo: weak attack, weak defence (1.25 xG, 1.63 xGA a game)
- Athletic Club: weak attack, weak defence (1.43 xG, 1.96 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →São Bernardo vs Athletic Club form and luck check
Serie B
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Serie B gamesSão Bernardo are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- São BernardoBookmakers: 56% to win today.Clinical · +6 goals+7.0
- Athletic ClubBookmakers: 19% to win today.−0.1
Last 5 matches
São BernardoAthletic ClubStrength rank: São Bernardo 13th of 20 · Athletic Club 17th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →São Bernardo vs Athletic Club: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Serie B
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Serie B gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in São Bernardo and Athletic Club games more often than the Serie B average (48%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 391 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →São Bernardo vs Athletic Club corners, cards and goal times
Serie B
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.4
- Cards: league 2.4
- Goals before half-time: league 44%
- Goals after 75': league 25%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
São BernardoAthletic ClubBoth Teams to Score
São BernardoAthletic ClubOver/Under 2.5 Goals
São BernardoAthletic ClubOver/Under 3.5 Goals
São BernardoAthletic ClubFirst Half Result
São BernardoAthletic ClubCorrect Score
São BernardoAthletic Club