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Südtirol vs Cesena

Südtirol vs Cesena 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)

Robbed

Cesena drew despite more chances

Südtirol

1–1

Cesena

1.8Chances (xG)2.8

On these chances Südtirol would usually take 0.9 points and Cesena 2.0; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Südtirol.

Südtirol +0.1 pts vs chancesCesena −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Südtirol vs Cesena stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Cesena had clearly more shots on target

Südtirol

Cesena

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

46%

Possession

54%

The match between Südtirol and Cesena ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Südtirol win at 45% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cesena – Catanzaro prediction & betting tips (Nov 7, 2026).

Südtirol vs Cesena — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Südtirol to win

Wrong

Our model 45%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 3,530 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,120 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,330 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 80%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,700 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.7% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 47%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,288 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Südtirol Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Südtirol 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,473 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Cesena Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cesena 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 77%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,573 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Südtirol vs Cesena 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Südtirol vs Cesena. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie B - Italy

Südtirol1

Cesena1

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

· FT

Serie B - Italy

Südtirol1

Cesena1

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

145%

X28%

226%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	34%	66%	60%	40%	70%	30%	90%	10%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	34%	66%	60%	40%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	70%	30%	90%	10%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	73%	62%	38%	85%	15%	95%	5%
	42%	58%	77%	24%	93%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	73%	62%	38%
	42%	58%	77%	24%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	85%	15%	95%	5%
	93%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

132%

X47%

221%

1st Score

155%

X11%

234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

28%

X-X

19%

X-1

17%

2-2

13%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-0

13.8%

1-1

13.0%

0-0

10.6%

0-1

9.4%

2-1

8.7%

2-0

8.7%

1-2

6.2%

0-2

4.3%

2-2

4.2%

3-0

4.0%

3-1

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Südtirol vs Cesena — Recent Form

Cesena have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 12th in the table. Südtirol have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Cesena

Südtirol

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Südtirol

1/5

Cesena

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Südtirol

2/5

Cesena

0/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Südtirol

4/5

Cesena

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Südtirol

5/5

Cesena

5/5

First Half Result

Südtirol

2/5

Cesena

0/5

Correct Score

Südtirol

0/5

Cesena

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cesena – Catanzaro prediction & betting tips (Nov 7, 2026).