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Catanzaro vs Calcio Padova

Catanzaro vs Calcio Padova 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)

Robbed

Catanzaro drew despite more chances

Catanzaro

1–1

Calcio Padova

1.9Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances Catanzaro would usually take 2.4 points and Calcio Padova 0.4; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Catanzaro.

Catanzaro −1.4 pts vs chancesCalcio Padova +0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Catanzaro vs Calcio Padova stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Catanzaro had more than twice the shots on target

Catanzaro

Calcio Padova

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

56%

Possession

44%

The match between Catanzaro and Calcio Padova ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Catanzaro win at 41% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cesena – Catanzaro prediction & betting tips (Nov 7, 2026).

Catanzaro vs Calcio Padova — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Catanzaro to win

Wrong

Our model 41%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 3,639 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.7% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,756 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,891 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 4,601 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.1% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 45%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,693 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

Catanzaro Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Catanzaro 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.0% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Calcio Padova Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Calcio Padova 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 67%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,325 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Catanzaro vs Calcio Padova 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Catanzaro vs Calcio Padova. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie B - Italy

Catanzaro1

Calcio Padova1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

· FT

Serie B - Italy

Catanzaro1

Calcio Padova1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

141%

X29%

230%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	25%	75%	50%	50%	61%	39%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	25%	75%	50%	50%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	61%	39%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	59%	41%	83%	17%	94%	6%
	33%	67%	67%	33%	88%	12%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	59%	41%
	33%	67%	67%	33%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	94%	6%
	88%	12%	96%	4%

1st Half

129%

X45%

227%

1st Score

150%

X8%

243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

21%

X-X

19%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-2

10%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

13.2%

1-0

9.8%

2-1

8.6%

0-1

7.7%

0-0

7.7%

1-2

7.5%

2-0

7.1%

2-2

6.2%

0-2

4.8%

3-1

4.1%

3-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Catanzaro vs Calcio Padova — Recent Form

Calcio Padova have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Catanzaro have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 20th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Calcio Padova

Catanzaro

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Catanzaro

0/5

Calcio Padova

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Catanzaro

5/5

Calcio Padova

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Catanzaro

4/5

Calcio Padova

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Catanzaro

2/5

Calcio Padova

5/5

First Half Result

Catanzaro

0/5

Calcio Padova

0/5

Correct Score

Catanzaro

1/5

Calcio Padova

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cesena – Catanzaro prediction & betting tips (Nov 7, 2026).