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Cremonese vs Calcio Padova 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
CremoneseCremonese

3–1

Calcio PadovaCalcio Padova
1.3Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Cremonese would usually take 1.2 points and Calcio Padova 1.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Cremonese.

Cremonese +1.8 pts vs chancesCalcio Padova −1.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cremonese vs Calcio Padova stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Cremonese

Calcio Padova

6

Shots on target

7

4

Big chances

3

3

Corners

5

0

Yellow cards

0

55%

Possession

45%

The match between Cremonese and Calcio Padova ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Cremonese win with 43% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Calcio Padova – Südtirol prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

Cremonese vs Calcio Padova — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cremonese to win

Correct
Our model 43%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 78%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 47%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Cremonese Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cremonese 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Calcio Padova Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Calcio Padova 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cremonese vs Calcio Padova 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cremonese vs Calcio Padova. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie B - Italy
CremoneseCremonese3
Calcio PadovaCalcio Padova1

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

143%
X29%
229%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%58%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Cremonese29%71%62%38%
Calcio Padova39%61%73%27%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Cremonese85%15%95%5%
Calcio Padova91%9%98%2%

1st Half

130%
X47%
223%

1st Score

151%
X11%
239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

X-X

21%

2-2

17%

X-1

16%

X-2

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.5%

1-0

12.2%

0-0

10.5%

0-1

9.5%

2-1

8.6%

2-0

8.0%

1-2

6.5%

0-2

5.0%

2-2

4.8%

3-1

3.8%

3-0

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Calcio Padova – Südtirol prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

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