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Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes 3-1 Score & Prediction Review
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 14)
Unión Santa Fe3–1
EstudiantesOn these chances Unión Santa Fe would usually take 1.7 points and Estudiantes 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Estudiantes.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes stats: how the match was played
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Unión Santa Fe had clearly more shots on target
Unión Santa Fe
Estudiantes
6
Shots on target
4
4
Big chances
0
6
Corners
5
0
Yellow cards
2
35%
Possession
65%
Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Unión Santa Fe to win
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Estudiantes to win.
Our track record
In 1,514 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.6% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,118 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,352 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,614 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 1,270 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.2% of the time (bookmakers said 51.6%).
Our model’s pick
Unión Santa Fe 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,667 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.4% of the time (bookmakers said 67.5%).
Our model’s pick
Estudiantes 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,387 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.4% of the time (bookmakers said 71.9%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Unión Santa Fe3
Estudiantes1Winner
12 72%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Unión Santa Fe3Estudiantes1Winner
12 72%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 68% | 58% | 42% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 69% | 32% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31% | 69% | 66% | 34% |
| 35% | 65% | 70% | 30% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 12% | 96% | 4% |
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
22%
X-X
21%
X-1
16%
2-2
15%
X-2
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
4%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.2%
1-0
11.8%
0-1
10.5%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.3%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
4.4%
3-1
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes — Recent Form
Unión Santa Fe have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. Estudiantes have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 12th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Unión Santa FeEstudiantesOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Unión Santa FeEstudiantesBoth Teams to Score
Unión Santa FeEstudiantesOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Unión Santa FeEstudiantesOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Unión Santa FeEstudiantesFirst Half Result
Unión Santa FeEstudiantesCorrect Score
Unión Santa FeEstudiantes