Shot-shy
6/10Deportivo Riestra failed to score in 6 of their last 10 (league 33%).
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Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 16)
Unlucky
Deportivo Riestra are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−6points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Deportivo Riestra 15% to winIndependiente 56%
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra score prediction
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Bore draw alertJust 1.9 goals expected
1.9 goals in total, a little under the Liga Profesional de Fútbol average of 2.1.
goals expected
Independiente1.2Deportivo Riestra0.7Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Independiente to win
Our model 49%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 3,529 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 59%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 5,718 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 64%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 3,093 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 84%Bookmakers 86%
Our track record
In 1,671 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.9% of the time (bookmakers said 81.2%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 1,252 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.2% of the time (bookmakers said 51.6%).
Independiente Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Independiente 0–1 goals
Our model 62%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 3,441 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Deportivo Riestra Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Deportivo Riestra 0–1 goals
Our model 82%Bookmakers 87%
Our track record
In 1,471 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.9% of the time (bookmakers said 80.5%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Independiente–
Deportivo Riestra–Winner
1X 78%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 74%
Independiente–Deportivo Riestra–Winner
1X 78%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 74%
Full Time
149%
X29%
222%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 37% | 63% | 64% | 36% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 74% | 26% | 92% | 8% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27% | 73% | 62% | 38% |
| 47% | 53% | 82% | 18% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
| 96% | 4% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
134%
X51%
215%
1st Score
158%
X12%
230%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
29%
X-X
21%
X-1
20%
X-2
9%
2-2
9%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
2-1
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
15.6%
1-1
12.8%
0-0
12.3%
2-0
10.4%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
5.2%
3-0
4.3%
3-1
3.7%
0-2
3.6%
2-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra: the stats that stand out
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Deportivo Riestra: shot-shy · Independiente: slow starters
6/10Slow starters
2/10Independiente scored first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 44%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra: attack vs defence
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Liga Profesional de Fútbol teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Independiente: good attack, good defence (1.45 xG, 1.35 xGA a game)
- Deportivo Riestra: weak attack, good defence (1.03 xG, 1.26 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra form and luck check
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Liga Profesional de Fútbol gamesDeportivo Riestra are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- IndependienteBookmakers: 56% to win today.Wasteful · −5 goals−3.3
- Deportivo RiestraBookmakers: 15% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals−5.8
Last 5 matches
IndependienteD
L
D
D
L
Deportivo RiestraL
L
D
L
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Independiente 12th of 30 · Deportivo Riestra 24th of 30
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 30 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Liga Profesional de Fútbol gamesBTTS = both teams scoredIndependiente and Deportivo Riestra games both go over 2.5 goals less often than the Liga Profesional de Fútbol average (37%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 37%
Independiente3 of 10
Deportivo Riestra2 of 10
BTTSleague 46%
Independiente5 of 10
Deportivo Riestra4 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 527 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra corners, cards and goal times
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 4.5
- Cards: league 2.5
- Goals before half-time: league 42%
- Goals after 75': league 25%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Deportivo Riestra2/5
Independiente1/5
Both Teams to Score
Deportivo Riestra3/5
Independiente3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Deportivo Riestra4/5
Independiente4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Deportivo Riestra5/5
Independiente4/5
First Half Result
Deportivo Riestra4/5
Independiente4/5
Correct Score
Deportivo Riestra2/5
Independiente2/5
correct predictionwrong prediction