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Belgrano vs Rosario Central 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 1)

Fair result
BelgranoBelgrano

2–1

Rosario CentralRosario Central
1.2Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Belgrano would usually take 1.4 points and Rosario Central 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Belgrano.

Belgrano +1.6 pts vs chancesRosario Central −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Belgrano vs Rosario Central stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Belgrano had clearly more shots on target

Belgrano

Rosario Central

5

Shots on target

3

1

Big chances

2

6

Corners

6

0

Yellow cards

2

48%

Possession

52%

The match between Belgrano and Rosario Central ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Belgrano win with 40% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Belgrano – River Plate prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Belgrano vs Rosario Central — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Belgrano to win

Correct
Our model 40%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 82%Bookmakers 87%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Belgrano Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Belgrano 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 68%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Rosario Central Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rosario Central 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Belgrano vs Rosario Central 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Belgrano vs Rosario Central. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
BelgranoBelgrano2
Rosario CentralRosario Central1

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 72%

Full Time

140%
X29%
231%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT36%64%62%38%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT72%28%91%9%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Belgrano32%68%68%32%
Rosario Central38%62%74%26%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Belgrano89%11%97%3%
Rosario Central91%9%98%2%

1st Half

129%
X52%
219%

1st Score

152%
X11%
236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

X-X

23%

X-1

17%

X-2

12%

2-2

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

2%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-1

13.5%

1-0

13.4%

0-0

11.5%

0-1

10.8%

2-1

8.2%

2-0

7.7%

1-2

6.7%

0-2

5.3%

2-2

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Belgrano – River Plate prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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