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Estudiantes vs Defensa y Justicia

Estudiantes vs Defensa y Justicia 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 3)

Fair result

Estudiantes

3–0

Defensa y Justicia

2.5Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Estudiantes would usually take 1.8 points and Defensa y Justicia 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Estudiantes.

Estudiantes +1.2 pts vs chancesDefensa y Justicia −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Estudiantes vs Defensa y Justicia stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Estudiantes

Defensa y Justicia

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

41%

Possession

59%

The match between Estudiantes and Defensa y Justicia ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Estudiantes win with 49% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Estudiantes – San Lorenzo prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Estudiantes vs Defensa y Justicia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Estudiantes to win

Correct

Our model 49%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 73%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Estudiantes Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Estudiantes 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Defensa y Justicia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Defensa y Justicia 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 87%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Estudiantes vs Defensa y Justicia 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Estudiantes vs Defensa y Justicia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Estudiantes3

Defensa y Justicia0

Winner

1X 76%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Estudiantes3

Defensa y Justicia0

Winner

1X 76%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

149%

X26%

224%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	28%	72%	52%	48%	63%	37%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	28%	72%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	63%	37%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	23%	77%	55%	45%	80%	20%	92%	8%
	41%	59%	74%	26%	91%	9%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	23%	77%	55%	45%
	41%	59%	74%	26%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	80%	20%	92%	8%
	91%	9%	97%	3%

1st Half

133%

X50%

218%

1st Score

157%

X8%

235%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

26%

X-1

20%

X-X

20%

2-2

10%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.3%

1-0

12.1%

2-1

9.5%

2-0

8.7%

0-0

8.1%

0-1

7.3%

1-2

5.8%

2-2

4.8%

3-1

4.7%

3-0

4.2%

0-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Estudiantes – San Lorenzo prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).