Home
Leagues
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Sarmiento vs Independiente Rivadavia

Sarmiento vs Independiente Rivadavia 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 3)

Smash-and-grab

Sarmiento won with fewer chances than Independiente Rivadavia

Sarmiento

2–1

Independiente Rivadavia

1.0Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Sarmiento would usually take 0.8 points and Independiente Rivadavia 2.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Sarmiento.

Sarmiento +2.2 pts vs chancesIndependiente Rivadavia −2.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Sarmiento vs Independiente Rivadavia stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Independiente Rivadavia had more than twice the shots on target

Sarmiento

Independiente Rivadavia

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

32%

Possession

69%

The match between Sarmiento and Independiente Rivadavia ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an Independiente Rivadavia win at 47% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sarmiento – Barracas Central prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

Sarmiento vs Independiente Rivadavia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Rivadavia to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Sarmiento to win.

Our model 47%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 380 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.8% than to our 45–50%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 57%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 63%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 83%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Sarmiento Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sarmiento 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 80%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Independiente Rivadavia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Rivadavia 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Sarmiento vs Independiente Rivadavia 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sarmiento vs Independiente Rivadavia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Sarmiento2

Independiente Rivadavia1

Winner

X2 76%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

0-1 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 73%

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Sarmiento2

Independiente Rivadavia1

Winner

X2 76%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

0-1 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 73%

Full Time

124%

X29%

247%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	36%	64%	63%	37%	73%	27%	91%	9%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	36%	64%	63%	37%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	73%	27%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	45%	55%	80%	20%	95%	5%	99%	1%
	28%	72%	62%	38%	86%	14%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	45%	55%	80%	20%
	28%	72%	62%	38%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	95%	5%	99%	1%
	86%	14%	96%	4%

1st Half

121%

X50%

229%

1st Score

138%

X12%

250%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

24%

X-X

21%

X-2

17%

1-1

14%

X-1

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

0-1

14.6%

1-1

13.0%

0-0

11.9%

0-2

9.8%

1-0

9.7%

1-2

8.9%

2-1

5.5%

2-0

4.1%

0-3

4.0%

2-2

3.7%

1-3

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sarmiento – Barracas Central prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).