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  4. Vélez Sarsfield vs Independiente

Vélez Sarsfield vs Independiente 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 3)

Fair result
Vélez SarsfieldVélez Sarsfield

1–0

IndependienteIndependiente
1.1Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Vélez Sarsfield would usually take 1.4 points and Independiente 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Vélez Sarsfield.

Vélez Sarsfield +1.6 pts vs chancesIndependiente −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Vélez Sarsfield vs Independiente stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Vélez Sarsfield had more than twice the shots on target

Vélez Sarsfield

Independiente

4

Shots on target

1

2

Big chances

0

4

Corners

4

3

Yellow cards

2

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Vélez Sarsfield and Independiente ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Vélez Sarsfield win with 41% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Racing Club – Independiente prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Vélez Sarsfield vs Independiente — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vélez Sarsfield to win

Correct
Our model 41%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 81%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 49%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Vélez Sarsfield Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vélez Sarsfield 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Independiente Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Vélez Sarsfield vs Independiente 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Vélez Sarsfield vs Independiente. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
Vélez SarsfieldVélez Sarsfield1
IndependienteIndependiente0

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 71%

Full Time

141%
X29%
231%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT34%66%61%39%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT71%29%90%10%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Vélez Sarsfield30%70%66%34%
Independiente38%62%74%26%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Vélez Sarsfield88%12%96%4%
Independiente92%8%98%2%

1st Half

127%
X49%
224%

1st Score

147%
X11%
242%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

23%

1-1

19%

2-2

16%

X-1

14%

X-2

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.5%

1-0

12.9%

0-0

10.6%

0-1

10.3%

2-1

8.4%

2-0

7.8%

1-2

6.9%

0-2

5.4%

2-2

3.9%

3-1

3.2%

3-0

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Racing Club – Independiente prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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