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  4. Atlético Tucumán vs River Plate

Atlético Tucumán vs River Plate 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 9)

Fair result
Atlético TucumánAtlético Tucumán

1–2

River PlateRiver Plate
0.6Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Atlético Tucumán would usually take 0.7 points and River Plate 2.1; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: River Plate.

Atlético Tucumán −0.7 pts vs chancesRiver Plate +0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Atlético Tucumán vs River Plate stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

River Plate had more than twice the shots on target

Atlético Tucumán

River Plate

1

Shots on target

5

2

Big chances

1

1

Corners

5

2

Yellow cards

2

1

Red cards

0

25%

Possession

75%

The match between Atlético Tucumán and River Plate ended 1-2. Our AI model correctly predicted an River Plate win with 46% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Belgrano – River Plate prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Atlético Tucumán vs River Plate — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

River Plate to win

Correct
Our model 46%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 87%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 399 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 87.7% of the time (bookmakers said 86.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Atlético Tucumán Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Tucumán 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 84%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 395 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

River Plate Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

River Plate 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Atlético Tucumán vs River Plate 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Tucumán vs River Plate. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
Atlético TucumánAtlético Tucumán1
River PlateRiver Plate2

Winner

X2 78%

BTTS*

No 63%

Correct Score

0-1 17%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 69%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 77%

Full Time

122%
X32%
246%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT43%57%69%31%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT77%23%94%6%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Atlético Tucumán50%50%83%17%
River Plate31%69%67%33%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Atlético Tucumán96%4%99%1%
River Plate88%12%97%3%

1st Half

121%
X53%
226%

1st Score

136%
X16%
248%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

24%

2-2

20%

X-2

18%

1-1

13%

X-1

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-1

17.2%

0-0

15.7%

1-1

13.0%

0-2

9.9%

1-0

9.9%

1-2

7.7%

2-1

4.8%

0-3

4.1%

2-0

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Belgrano – River Plate prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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