2. Leagues
  3. Liga Profesional de Fútbol
  4. Sarmiento vs Belgrano

Sarmiento vs Belgrano 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 9)

Robbed

Belgrano drew despite more chances

SarmientoSarmiento

1–1

BelgranoBelgrano
1.3Chances (xG)2.8

On these chances Sarmiento would usually take 0.6 points and Belgrano 2.2; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Belgrano.

Sarmiento +0.4 pts vs chancesBelgrano −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Sarmiento vs Belgrano stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Belgrano had clearly more shots on target

Sarmiento

Belgrano

4

Shots on target

7

4

Big chances

5

3

Corners

7

4

Yellow cards

1

26%

Possession

74%

The match between Sarmiento and Belgrano ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Belgrano win at 36% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Belgrano – River Plate prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Sarmiento vs Belgrano — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Belgrano to win

Wrong
Our model 36%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,107 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,722 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.9% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 85%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 1,744 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.6% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,246 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.3% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Sarmiento Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sarmiento 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 1,582 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Belgrano Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Belgrano 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,377 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Sarmiento vs Belgrano 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sarmiento vs Belgrano. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
SarmientoSarmiento1
BelgranoBelgrano1

Winner

12 69%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 75%

Full Time

133%
X31%
236%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT39%61%66%34%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT75%25%93%7%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Sarmiento38%62%74%26%
Belgrano36%64%72%28%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Sarmiento92%8%98%2%
Belgrano91%9%98%2%

1st Half

123%
X52%
225%

1st Score

142%
X13%
244%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

24%

2-2

19%

1-1

16%

X-2

15%

X-1

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.6%

0-0

13.5%

0-1

12.8%

1-0

12.7%

1-2

7.5%

2-1

7.1%

0-2

6.9%

2-0

6.2%

2-2

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Belgrano – River Plate prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores